One would think that Gallup, Pew, Rasmussen, every sufficiently wealthy news organization and anyone else interested in conducting a poll would be familiar with the basics of the American electoral system. Why they all insist on continuing to waste precious ink on national polls, then, is completely mystifying.
Gallup’s latest poll of registered voters reports that former Gov. Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama are tied nationally, 48 to 48 percent. Gallup’s latest poll of likely voters, based on a complex set of assumptions about voter turnout, has Romney leading Obama by 5 percentage points, 51 to 46.
At this stage in the election, like any sufficiently close election, the fate of the candidates rests with fewer than a half-dozen states. popular vote. Most stakeholders care only about the likelihood of victory in the Electoral College, and a national poll is not very useful at this point.
This is why most prognosticators consider Obama to have a far higher chance of victory than the national polls would suggest.
A month ago election was over according to polls. Now polls are a waste of time. The Old Switcheroo.